Creo Guatemala

Aldo Bonilla: Somos un “Estado Fallido”?

Aldo Bonilla | 10 Julio, 2010 | sin comentarios

Por: Aldo N. Bonilla

En diferentes foros y puntos de encuentro, incluyendo prestigiosas publicaciones como “Foreing Policy” o publicaciones anuales como las del “Found for Peace” se hacen comentarios y se discute si el Estado Guatemalteco es un Estado Fallido.

A pesar de la imprecisión del término, Wikipedia nos dice “si se toma de forma literal, un Estado fallido sería aquel en el que no hay un gobierno efectivo, al contrario de un gobierno dictatorial que acapara y utiliza todo el poder.”

Abundan los argumentos sobre la “efectividad” del Gobierno, parafraseando a Wikipedia, por lo que es oportuno hacernos una pregunta: ¿no es la CICIG un ente que, utilizando la preeminencia de la ley internacional, el concepto de “inmunidad diplomática” y su status “supra-nacional” la fehaciente demostración que el Estado Guatemalteco y su sistema anacrónico, sus instituciones, que, verbigracia, el Organismo Judicial entre ellas, tiene un 2% de efectividad?, es decir, 98 de cada 100 procesos judiciales no logran la condena del imputado.

La Comisión Internacional contra la Impunidad en Guatemala, CICIG, ha sido creada como un ente superior a la ley, asunto que parece ser, ha causado controversia, dado que algunos han considerado el hecho de que no puede haber nada ni nadie que pueda ser superior a la ley.

Sin embargo, es opinión de este autor, que la existencia de la CICIG viene a precisamente abstraerse del regimen legal guatemalteco con el objeto de enfocarse en los que hacen cumplir la ley y los que en su calidad de fuerzas de seguridad, compelen su cumplimiento.

Y allí es donde radica su importancia, porque son precisamente los operadores del sistema judicial los que deben ser investigados para identificar como es que la impunidad campea y la justicia ya no es pronta ni cumplida.

Un tema debatible, porque es una caracterización sui-géneris sin parangón en el mundo, otros países donde los índices de corrupción, debilidad judicial e irrespeto a la institucionalidad han considerado solicitar al Sistema de Naciones Unidas la posibilidad de implementar un ente de esta calidad, para combatir, la gangrena y putrefacción que minan sus instituciones.

Jean Jacques Rousseau, en su “Contrato Social” argüía que, el hombre, al vivir en sociedad, libre y soberanamente firma el contrato en que reduce su libertad y la limita dentro del marco de común-vivencia ante la libertad de su prójimo y delega a un ente superior a si mismo, el ejercicio de las actividades que le reditúan la satisfacción de sus necesidades o la libertad limitada para que pueda satisfacerlas por si mismo, de tal cuenta que, crea un ente que debe darle esa protección. Entonces, el hombre, le protesta fidelidad a una organización comunitaria donde se convive pacíficamente. Sin embargo, cuando es ese este superior al hombre el que no cumple con fidelidad su función, cuando éste, con el fin de preservar su propia vida y la de su familia debe encontrar los métodos que le permitan continuar su vida en comunidad para el pleno goce de sus capacidades, libertades y beneficios sociales, es allí cuando, en un paso hacia atras, el hombre regresa a su estado primitivo y es cuando también, el Contrato Social, cumple meramente con una función de pacto, “vivimos en esta cueva y nos protegemos unos a otros, cualquier amenaza externa, será aniquilada con nuestras manos para la protección de nuestras vidas y las de nuestras familias”.

El “Fund for Peace”, (http://www.fundforpeace.org) que publica anualmente un análisis sobre la situación en que se encuentran los Estados del mundo respecto al concepto de “Estado Fallido”, utiliza los siguientes parámetros para medir a los Estados, desde un riesgo admisible hasta la riesgo máximo: (traducción libre)

“INDICADORES SOCIALES

Existencia de presión demográfica.
Importantes migraciones que crean emergencias humanitarias complejas.
Resabios de búsqueda de venganza, paranoia grupal.
Conflictos humanos crónicos y continuos.

INDICADORES ECONÓMICOS

Desarrollo económico desigual entre pobladores.
Deficiencias económicas severas y pronunciadas.

INDICADORES POLÍTICOS

Criminalización y/o deslegitimación del Estado.
Deterioro progresivo de los servicios públicos.
Suspensión o aplicación arbitraria de la majestad de la ley y variada violación a los derechos humanos.
Aparatos estatales de seguridad operan como “un gobierno dentro del gobierno”.
Desarrollo de élites fragmentadas, y,
Intervención de otros Estados o actores políticos internacionales.”

Saludable es, entonces, establecer si, Guatemala, en las actuales condiciones y, a pesar de la parcialización de la información a través de los medios o los aparatos estatales, es o no un Estado Fallido.

Califique el lector si, dentro de este esquema, los indicadores que el Fondo para la Paz utiliza, llevan la posibilidad de establecer esos extremos.

Reproduzco el perfil de Guatemala, según “The Fund for Peace”:

Guatemala

Overview

Guatemala is located in Central America bordering Mexico, Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, the Gulf of Honduras (Caribbean Sea), and the North Pacific Ocean. It has a population of 13.0 million that is 59.4% Mestizo and European, 9.1% K’iche, 8.4% Kaqchikel, 7.9% Mam, 6.3% Q’eqchi, 8.6% other Mayan, 0.2% non-Mayan indigenous, and 0.1% other. Guatemalans are composed of Roman Catholics, Protestants, and others who practice indigenous Mayan beliefs. About 60% of the population speaks Spanish, with the remainder speaking 23 officially recognized indigenous languages, including Quiche, Cakchiquel, Kekchi, Mam, Garifuna, and Xinca. Guatemala has a GDP per capita of $4,700, with an economy that is dominated by the private sector. On September 15, 1821, Guatemala achieved independence from Spain. Following independence, the country experienced a series of dictatorships, insurgencies, coups, stretches of military rule, and occasional periods of representative government. In 1960, a group of junior military officers launched a failed coup against the government of General Miguel Ydigoras Fuent. Afterwards they went into hiding and began an armed insurrection that lasted for the next 36 years until the government signed a peace agreement in 1996. A democratic constitution was adopted on May 30, 1985 starting Guatemala on the road to a democratic government. Most recently National Unity for Hope (UNE) candidate, Álvaro Colom, won the November 4, 2007 presidential election and replaced President Oscar Berger of the Grand National Alliance (GANA) on January, 11 2008.

Social Indicators

The demographic pressures indicator improved from 7.0 in the FSI 2007 to 6.8 for the FSI 2008. Guatemala has a population growth rate of 2.11% and a large youth bulge, with 40.1% of its population under the age of 15. The Caribbean coast is extremely vulnerable to hurricanes, and the country also experiences occasional violent earthquakes. The refugees and displaced persons indicator remained at 6.0 for the FSI 2008. The number of refugees in the country is in the hundreds and has been relatively stable since 1999. The number of IDPs in Guatemala is undetermined. Although the UN does not consider there to be any IDPs in the country some NGOs estimate there to be over 200,000 IDPs who were displaced as a result of the 36 years of internal conflict. The group grievances indicator improved from 7.1 in the FSI 2007 to 6.9 for the FSI 2008 due to growing indigenous influence in politics. Despite recent improvements indigenous persons continue to remain underrepresented in politics, have limited educational opportunities, be impoverished, lack awareness of their rights, and face pervasive discrimination (particularly in obtaining employment). The human flight indicator remained at 6.7 for the FSI 2008. Many Guatemalans continued to emigrate in order to find better opportunities abroad and send home remittances, causing the human flight indicator to remain high.
Economic Indicators

The uneven development indicator remained steady at 8.0 for the FSI 2008. The poverty rate is considerably higher among indigenous persons, with 77% of the country’s indigenous population living below the poverty line, while only 41% of non-indigenous persons live below the poverty line. The country suffers from an extremely unequal income distribution, with the poorest 10% of the population receiving 0.9% of all income and the wealthiest 10% receiving 43.4% of all income. The indicator for the economy improved from 7.0 in the FSI 2007 to 6.7 for the FSI 2008. Guatemala had a GDP (purchasing power parity) of $62.53 billion in 2007 and a real growth rate of 5.7%. The private sector continues to dominate the country’s economy, accounting for about 85% of GDP. The agriculture sector generates 13.3% of GDP and 75% of all exports. Coffee, sugar, and bananas continue to be the primary agricultural products of the country. Along with petroleum, apparel, fruits and vegetables, and cardamom, these products make up the country’s primary exports. Sugar exports have also benefited from the increased global demand for ethanol, giving a boost to the economy. Remittances from Guatemalans living abroad continue to generate a considerable amount of revenue, serving as the primary source of foreign income equivalent to nearly two-thirds of exports. Guatemala has sound macroeconomic management and modest foreign debt levels; however, there remains a need for increased transparency and accountability in Guatemala’s public finances. The country also needs to broaden its tax base and narrow its trade deficit in order for the economy to continue to improve.

Political/Military Indicators

The indicator for the legitimacy of the state improved from 7.4 in the FSI 2007 to 7.2 for the FSI 2008. President Oscar Berger, who was elected fairly in 2003, served through the end of 2007. In November 2007 Álvaro Colom won the presidential election by a small margin, and assumed the presidency in January 2008. Although Colom does not belong to any of the country’s 23 Mayan ethnic groups, he is an ordained Mayan minister and has stated that he would like to create a government with a “Mayan face” that would pursue national unity. Corruption continues to be seen as a serious problem in almost all government institutions, causing Guatemala to be ranked 111th of 180 countries in the 2007 Corruption Perceptions Index. The public services indicator remained at 6.6 for the FSI 2008. Indigenous persons continue to have restricted access to services due to a lack of birth registration in the country. Less than half of the total population has completed primary school, and completion rates are much lower in rural and indigenous areas. The human rights indicator remained at 7.1 for the FSI 2008. Unlawful killings by the police continue to be largely ignored and inadequately investigated. There have also been a number of reports of police involvement in kidnappings for ransom and other criminal activity throughout the country. Credible reports of torture, abuse, and mistreatment of suspects by National Civilian Police (PNC) members have also been made in recent years. Prison conditions remain harsh and dangerous. Labor laws continue to be ineffectively enforced, and child labor remains a widespread problem. The indicator for the security apparatus remained at 7.3 for the FSI 2008. Although civilian authorities have generally maintained effective control of security forces, there were many cases of illegal activity and human rights abuses by security forces. In the past year very few cases of criminal activity by police officers went to trial. Societal violence continues to be widespread; murder, rape, and armed assaults against persons of all nationalities also continue to occur throughout Guatemala. The government has often used the military to supplement the police in response to rising crime and violence. The factionalized elites indicator worsened from 5.9 in the FSI 2007 to 6.0 for the FSI 2008. This is due to the government’s continuing investigation into corruption charges against former President Alfonso Portillo and several senior members of his government. Indigenous persons remain underrepresented in politics, although their influence has grown somewhat in recent years. The external influence indicator remained at 5.3 for the FSI 2008. USAID continues to provide aid to Guatemala, and Guatemalans working abroad continue to send home a significant amount of remittances.

Core Five State Institutions

Leadership	Military	Police	Judiciary	Civil Service

Moderate	Moderate	Weak	Weak	Weak

Former-President Berger was a clear improvement over his predecessor, Alfonso Portillo, who was widely considered one of the most corrupt Latin American leaders in recent history. President-elect Álvaro Colom has pledged to create a government with a “Mayan face” that would seek national unity. However, despite the improvement in executive leadership, corruption continued to be perceived as a serious problem in almost all government institutions in 2007.

In recent years, the Guatemalan military has been reduced to a force of approximately 15,500 troops. Although an agreement signed in 1996 mandated that the mission of the armed forces be focused exclusively on external threats, recently the military has been used to support the police in response to rising crime throughout the country. Military expenditures make up 0.4% of GDP.

The National Civilian Police (PNC) consists of about 19,100 members. However, the PNC continues to be understaffed, inadequately trained, and insufficiently funded. Police corruption and impunity remain a significant problem, along with human rights abuses and police involvement in criminal activity. Officers suspected of misconduct are frequently transferred, rather than being investigated and punished.

The judiciary continues to suffer from inefficiency, corruption, insufficient personnel, insufficient funds, as well as frequent intimidation of judges, prosecutors, and witnesses. All of these factors continue to limit the fairness and timeliness of trials. The majority of serious crimes have neither been investigated, nor punished.

In practice, civil servants are often subject to political interference, and political considerations usually play an important role in appointments and professional assessments. In some sectors, civil servants continue to participate in policy decisions where their personal interests are affected.

Prognosis

Although Guatemala has recently experienced elections that have generally been seen as free and fair, its tumultuous past continues to be a factor in its struggles to improve. Problems like unequal income distribution and widespread poverty remain major problems in Guatemala, particularly among the indigenous population. In order for Guatemala to continue to improve its stability reforms must be broadened to further integrate the indigenous population into Guatemalan social, economic, and political life, from which they have long been excluded. Steps also must be taken to more effectively combat rising crime and societal violence. One of the key institutions that needs to be addressed is the PNC, which is in desperate need of reform to improve its effectiveness, reduce corruption, and human rights abuses committed by its members. Corruption within all levels of the government must also be addressed, and the judicial branch is in desperate need of reforms to make it a more productive part of the government.

Bibliografía:

http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=376&Itemid=533